Scenarios for outlooks of energy demand and supply are important tools for policy makers and the industry to evaluate the impact of policy options on a number of societal development issues. Most of the outlooks incorporate a scenario with current (or announced) policies; they may also include variations, such as sensitivity analysis on exogenous factors (such as economic growth), or more fundamental changes such as strong carbon-reduction measures.
The current trends of energy demand would lead to continuous greenhouse gas emissions, testing the limits of sustainability. Additionally, meeting the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, that target a major reduction in energy poverty would be very challenging.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) developed a scenario, named Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), that would address three major energy-related aspects, namely universal energy access, reduced greenhouse gas emissions that would be compatible with a (less than) 2-degree trajectory, and improvement in air quality. The presentation highlights major implications of the SDS in terms of global energy supply and demand, as well as policy and technology requirements. It also compares the investments requirements compared to current trends, and the implications for the oil and gas industry.
