Project Economics, Risk, and Uncertainty Analysis

Perform economic analysis of petroleum projects under conditions of uncertainty. Develop simple examples of project metrics using spreadsheet monte carlo simulations for stochastic analysis. Build financial models to show project cash flow streams for both capital investment and income cash flow and calculate key metrics such as profit/investment ratio, profit, payout period, net present value, internal rate of return and expected monetary value. Where there are uncertainties in the variables, use standard software to prepare sensitivity and stochastic analysis to show the potential variations in the metrics because of these uncertainties. The objectives of this course are to introduce the learner to: analyze the economics of a prospect under conditions of uncertainty, build deterministic and stochastic models, build E&P financial models to demonstrate project cash flow, calculate project economic metrics including profit/investment ratios, profit, payout period, net present value, internal rate of return and expected monetary value, and prepare sensitivity and stochastic analysis to measure potential variations in project metrics.

Expiration: This course expires 12 months from date of registration.