Workflow for Applying Simple Models to Forecast Production From Hydraulically Fractured Shale Wells

The industry has devoted a great deal of attention in recent years to production decline models that might serve as alternatives to the Arps hyperbolic decline model for hydraulically fractured wells with long-duration transient flow. These efforts have arisen because the Arps model was developed for reservoirs in the boundary-dominated flow regime, whereas much onshore development in North America has focused on ultra-low permeability reservoirs, such as shale, which may remain in the transient flow regime for many months or years.